Talk:The Programmer/@comment-71.184.241.139-20190731015139/@comment-71.184.241.139-20190731021654

Assuming it takes a year on average to pass on which I don't think is unreasonable (median), that means that 100 people are admitted a year to keep this constant. Far lower than the 4423.5 you'd get with ad hoc regret chance, therefore meaning the "regret chance" for Afterlife High is far lower than 1% at approx 0.0225%. Therefore, this means that 0.00001%. Over 1 year there's a 4.5% chance. Over 10 years there's a 38% chance. Over 20 there's a 61% chance. Over 50 there's a 91% chance. And over 100 (around how long Shiina was in the after life, for reference) there's a 99.1% chance of the programmer meeting this person. Of course this is still a very long time, and it's somewhat understandable why he snapped; just illustrating that the time spent waiting isn't as infeasible as it's made out to be.

N.B. made a typo in original post, meant 0.999996^450000. Also running the numbers its 0.004% not 0.0004%.